Pan Jiahua is Director of the Climate Change Program at the Research Center for Sustainable Development at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China’s leading government think tank. He was interviewed by German journalist Bernhard Bartsch.

What are your expectations for the outcome of Copenhagen?
China, together with quite a few other nations including the G-77 developing countries, is pushing for the implementation of the Bali action plan that was concluded in 2007 (Conference on Climate Change, Indonesia). In this action plan, it is clear that deep cuts have to be made by 2020 and that developing countries need to take measurable, reportable and verifiable mitigation action. Financing and adaptation of technology should also be included in the Copenhagen document.

And you are optimistic that these goals can be reached?
That mostly depends on the United States. I think the political will of the White House is evident. But without the approval of Congress, Obama will not be able to make very concrete commitments. And if the US is unable to provide a number for emission cuts by 2020 in Copenhagen, I don’t think we will have a very specific emission reduction number.

From a Chinese perspective, what is the number to which the US should commit?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recommended that the rich countries should reduce their emissions by 2020 by between 25 and 40 percent, based on the year 1990. The Chinese government’s position is that developed countries should reduce their emissions by at least 40 percent. The reason is mainly that developed countries should take the lead. Currently, their emissions are several times the developed countries’ average. If the rich nations cannot reduce emissions successfully, they would give developing countries a very poor example.

Is China willing to commit itself to any targets?
The Bali road map makes no requirement for developing countries to commit themselves to a number of reduction.

But it seems like the US will only accept a target if China and other large developing countries agree to do the same. After all, China is the world’s largest producer of CO2.
It is very irrational of the Americans to come up with such a demand. It is only an excuse for their own inaction. Their per capita emissions are 4 to 5 times that of the Chinese, and in terms in capital and technology and institutional capability the US are supposed to be much superior. If they go back to their own history, they can easily understand China’s situation: We have some 11 million people going to the urban sector every year. These people need housing, infrastructure and employment – none of that is carbon free. In fact, our energy structure is still very carbon intensive: China’s energy consumption is only three quarters of US’, but total emissions are a bit more.

So at the current stage of industrialisation and urbanisation and poverty alleviation, China is not in a position to commit itself to emission reduction targets. This is very much in accordance with the Kyoto protocol and the principle of 'common but differentiated responsibilities'.

Nonetheless, China as a developing country has taken serious and substantial mitigation action that has proven to be very effective. If you look at China’s efforts, no other country has something comparable to show. At the UN summit in September, President Hu Jintao said that China is ready to make a significant reduction of 'carbon intensity'.

China is going to increase its renewable energy to 15 percent. That is very ambitious. Although China has no Uranium reserves of its own, we will increase nuclear power from currently only 10 GW to 70 GW in ten years. No other country could come up with such a large investment in such a short period of time.

And look at our energy efficiency increase. In the 11th Five Year Plan (2006-2010), we have a 20 percent energy intensity reduction. In the 12th Five Year Plan, I don’t think we will have such a high target, but it will still be high, probably somewhere between 10 to 15 percent. Not a single country – not the US, not the Europeans and not even the Japanese – has reached such a target in five years.

The targets are impressive, indeed. But in the past, China has not always been able to reach its targets.
I think there should be no problem for China to reach the 20 percent energy reduction target. The reason is very simple: We should thank the financial crisis. Some energy intensive sectors are very adversely affected. Less demand for steel or cement also leads to reductions in the combustion of coal. So the energy mix is changing.

But isn’t this only a short-term effect?
You are certainly right. But the financial crisis has demonstrated that China production capacity in these sectors already meets demand. We can produce 550 million tons of steel annually and 4 billion tons of cement. That is enough. The idea that China will continue to grow exponentially is wrong.

So when do you expect China’s coal consumption peak?
For energy consumption, the current understanding is that the very capital and energy intensive process of urbanisation will peak before 2020. Between 2020 and 2030 we will then have a phase of consolidation, and after 2030, China will go into a rather low-energy kind of post-industrialisation phase. The energy increase will be minimal and total energy consumption will probably peak some time around 2035. However, the peak of coal should be well before 2035, because we have very aggressive investments in nuclear and renewables like wind, solar and hydropower.

This is very ambitious, but the bottom line is that it will hardly be enough to keep global warming below two degrees Celsius.

You are certainly right. That is why we have come up with the carbon budget proposal. From a starting point to an end point, we will sum up all global emissions and then divide them by the world population on per capita basis. Then you can see how much every country has used already and how much it has left. And if there is a shortage you buy and if you have a surplus, you can use your own. This will lead to a new financial mechanism: The carbon using rights can flow from poor to rich countries and capital will flow from rich to poor countries.

Photo: © Bernhard Bartsch
Pan Jiahua, member of China’s delegation to the UN Summit on Climate Change (Copenhagen, 2009).

Source: Reproduced from UNESCO Courier 2009- No 10 Climate change: where are we going?

To read the full volume:
http://portal.unesco.org/en/ev.php-URL_ID=46901&URL_DO=DO_TOPIC&URL_SECTION=201.html